As of 4 Nov 2026 · PAGASA / Australia BoM
Peaking by the end of 2026, lasting into the first half of 2027
PAGASA expects this very strong El Niño to persist until the first half of 2027, potentially reaching its peak by the end of 2026. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has models peaking Nov–Dec 2026 and staying above El Niño thresholds into Southern Hemisphere autumn 2027 (roughly March–May).
Next few months
What PAGASA and Australia's BoM expect, period by period
Confidence: high for Nov–Dec, lower beyond mid-2027
PAGASA and BoM agree on the Nov–Dec 2026 peak. Beyond the first half of 2027, models vary on how quickly it eases ·
PAGASA updated 4 Nov 2026 · BoM 25 Oct 2026
Four forecasts, one picture
PAGASA
Very strong El Niño, expected to persist until the first half of 2027 and potentially peak by the end of 2026.
Updated 4 Nov 2026 NOAA CPC
ONI at +2.4 °C — in the strong El Niño range.
As of 9 Oct 2026 · sample IRI Columbia
Niño 3.4 ocean warmth at +3.3 °C — above the +2.0 °C “very strong” line.
Week centred 14 Oct 2026 Australia BoM
All models peak Nov–Dec 2026 and stay above El Niño thresholds into autumn 2027.
Updated 25 Oct 2026