As of 4 Nov 2026 (PAGASA)
PAGASA has the Philippines on El Niño Advisory Very strong
A Very Strong El Niño is currently present in the tropical Pacific and is expected to persist until the first half of 2027, potentially reaching its peak by the end of 2026. This is PAGASA’s monitoring page as updated on 4 November 2026, confirmed by Advisory No. 6 issued 3 November 2026.
What's behind the call
PAGASA, NOAA, IRI Columbia and BoM each publish an index. They don't always match exactly — here's what each one says right now.
PAGASA alert level
+3.3 °C
Niño 3.4 ocean warmth. Anything above +2.0 °C is in the “very strong” range.
As of 14 Oct 2026 · IRI Columbia
+2.4 °C
Strong El Niño by NOAA's measure
NOAA CPC · 9 Oct 2026−40 to −80%
Below normal over most of Luzon
PAGASA · 21 Oct · sampleNov–Dec 2026
Effects linger into mid-2027
BoM · Oct 2026+2.88 °C
Relative Niño 3.4, above threshold
BoM · week ending 25 Oct 2026